10 Thoughts on MSU vs. Texas Tech,

Fellow, #SpartanDawgs. What a magical ride it's been with this team. More than anything else, I don't want it to end, even if it's Monday night. My kids and family are all-in on this team and it's because of what they symbolize. The ultimate team, basketball IQ, great leadership on the coaching staff, and ability to rebound from adversity. While I was on Spring Break, I was able to watch some Texas Tech film and videos others put out there. When I got home, I took a peek at my notes on how we played against these "funnel defenses." After doing that, I put together 10 things that I'll really be interested in as this game unfolds tonight. 1. How much does Texas Tech stray from their defense to stop MSU? A focus on that will be the way Texas Tech usually switches screens. They normally switch ball screens 1-5. Will they do that and put their bigs on Winston? Will they do it and have Moretti guarding Tillman like he did Teske? This is the best defense in the last 18 years of data collected by Ken Pom's adjusted-D numbers. It's historically good. How much does Chris Beard change something that good? 2. On that same note, will they aggressively trap/blitz Cassius on ball screens? Others I've read say that teams have tried that against MSU. Not sure I agree with that. It depends on your terminology and I don't want to get lost in that. Teams have kept their big alongside Winston and he drove and then had the guard screened trail the play. I wouldn't call that a trap/blitz. I'm talking about Bill Self at Illinois aggressively trap to steal. It is something I would certainly try against Winston, but it's not a normal look for Texas Tech. Will they try it? 3. Defending true motion offense. I think MSU defense vs. Texas Tech offense is the true story of the game. If I'm MSU, I am telling myself I need to hold Texas Tech under 60 to win. Purdue runs the motion closest to what MSU will see tonight. Texas Tech is going to curl and flare more than any team MSU has seen. MSU loves to switch a lot of those off ball screens, especially guard to guard. Will they do that and have Winston on Culver? How much do the bigs help, which leaves Owens on slips and dives to the rim for dunks. Having 5 days to prepare for this is a big asset. The other thing that helps is that MSU defines the way they defend so many screens, as they see pieces of motion offense in all offenses. They are going to "Charlie Bell" all curls as they chase behind and close the gap. Excited and interested in the first few possessions to see how well MSU defends that base look. 4. Moretti vs. McQuaid - Of course Henry defending Culver is getting all the headlines. I think whoever gets the better of Moretti vs. McQuaid will go a long ways to deciding this game. MSU needs McQuaid to get out in transition, finish, and shoot the ball from "3" better than he has. I still can't believe MSU beat Duke shooting as poorly as they did from "3." Moretti is a spark plug for that TT offense when it sputters and has been playing really well in the tourney. HUGE matchup in tonight's game. 5. Foul trouble of Owens vs. Tillman. TT doesn't have another Owens and MSU doesn't have another Tillman. Both players are so vital to what teams do on both end of the floor, are so versatile, and are huge in the plus/minus for their team. If either of them come out due to foul trouble, which happens with both of them major advantage to the other team. 6. MSU offensive rebounding and transition game - No matter how good your half-court defense is, offensive rebounding and transition can kill you. What is the best transition? Steals and bad shots. MSU turned Duke over and it led to transition. If they get you late shot clock and you take a bad shot, that leads to transition. TT is not a great rebounding team and that could be MSU's #1 advantage in this game. I'm interested to see if Beard does what Beilein/Bo Ryan do and just not try to offensive rebound and get back. 7. How clean of a game can MSU play? The story of the LSU and Duke games has been less than 10 turnovers and less than 15 fouls. You aren't going to shoot a great percentage against Texas Tech. If you add 15 turnovers into that, I'm not sure how they win the game. Few fouls and few turnovers, that was a big part of the story from MSU in D.C. Not to mention what other coaches are now mentioning when they play MSU which is that they just don't take many bad shots. 8. MSU low post offense - I think MSU can and will score in the post. Not only with Ward, but Tillman and maybe even Henry. Texas Tech is going to swap and poke on the entry, as we saw vs. the Zags and heard about all week. When we get touches in there, there will be lots of help, but is one of the areas where MSU has the biggest advantage, IMO. But Texas Tech makes it very hard to get it in there and swarms when it does. 9. Defeating a "funnel defense" - We know about Texas Tech "no middle" philosophy. A lot of teams "guard their yard" and don't force either way. Others would rather have it go baseline but don't exaggerate it like TT does. How do you beat it? Here's 5 ways I think MSU can: * Skip and then post. Dribble to the baseline to draw the double/funnel. You can't kick it back to ball-side wing or even to the top. Texas Tech leaves the skip as it's the hardest pass. Once you skip it, and immediate entry into that post player on the block is a great option. Why? The post-defender is the one who goes to double off the funnel. Skip it and post it. Deep. * Skip off a flare. Picture the same thing, except the weak-side post stays out, about 12 feet from the basket. When the penetration happens baseline, skip it and have the post player pin-in the nearest defender and hit the skip for a "3." * Dribble hand-off at the top of the key for Cash. Picture Winston dribbling on the right side of the top about 30 feet from the basket. Tillman comes to screen but Winston's defender ices it and won't let him go middle. Flash our other big/Goins to the top and have Winston pass it to him and then go get a hand-off. That's going to put Winston's defender in a major chase situation, probably getting screened off on the hand-off, and considering if he can keep icing it with the exaggerated stance. * Cash drive and kick to euro-cuts. As he drives down one side of the lane, the ball-side guard and post will sink to cut him off. Picture McQuaid on the right wing as Winston drives down the right side. As Winston drives, McQuaid slides all the way into the open window at the top of the key. Winston must jump stop, pivot, and kick to the top. TT defense is programmed to drop as low as the dribbler and squeeze ball-side. * Pick and Pop with Goins/Tillman - Their bigs are going to turn Winston back to the ball-screen, if he can get past the ice. They will just leave the big for 2-3 seconds while they recover. I bet one of the first sets of the game is a pick and pop for an uncontested Goins "3." 10. How well teams are currently playing. I felt good about MSU's chances against LSU as they weren't impressive against Maryland or Yale. I felt good about MSU's chances against Duke as they weren't impressive against UCF or VTech. Texas Tech has been great the last 2 games in dominating a very good Michigan team and a Gonzaga team talented enough to win it all. On the other side, MSU is playing clearner and better than at any point this year. That's what makes it an amazing matchup.

I hate predictions, but forced to do one, I'll say 62-61 MSU as the Spartans get a stop at the buzzer and win the game on the end people should be talking about more, MSU defense vs. TTech offense.