10 MSU vs. Duke thoughts-personnel-X's and O's-etc...

Had about 7 hours on the beach today to mull this post over, so apologies for an overload of information!

1. Coach K's record vs. Izzo. The 1-11 doesn't really matter to me, to be honest. I don't track what teams MSU beats or doesn't beat in November. Those streaks matter most against conference teams and in March. So, the 3-1 mark Coach K has vs. Izzo matters. It happening twice in the Final Four, matters. But those other losses, barely even remember the games.

2. But...why the 1-11? It's not hard to follow. Two big reasons. First, Duke has an amazing coach and almost always better players. Teams with better players usually win. Simple. Second, MSU is prone to turning the basketball over. My theory on that is the reliance on set plays with multiple and complicated reads. It's often harder to run a play than it is to play. If you are trying to go to point A, B, or C, those reads may be partially open and teams are up in your face. Teams that pressure your decisions on those reads, can really make offensive execution hard for you. Throw in that those are often long and athletic defenders, makes it even worse. It doesn't always show up just in the turnover stat, but it can.

3. Duke's defensive pressure in this game. Jones is the type of defender that is the hardest for Winston to deal with, IMO. Quick, defensive-focused, used to picking up full and getting under you, and physical enough. That pressure concerns me. Zion and others jumping into the passing lanes for "Pick 6's" concerns me. Coach Izzo has 10ish pressure release/back-door looks they can run. I bet we see some of those in the first 4 minutes. Attack the amped-up freshmen with back-door execution and make them think twice about being up in those lanes.

4. Jones' ball pressure vs. ball screens. The flip side of that is the pressure on Winston isn't optimal for defending the ball screen. The best D for the ball-screen is to see it coming, know how you are going to play it, and then execute. For MSU, the ball screen and re-ball screen with intense pressure is a good thing...think of how MSU abused Simpson in the ball-screen action with his aggressiveness. Duke switched some ball-screens vs. VTech. I don't think they will want anyone but Jones/Goldwire on Winston, so not sure we will see that. LSU "iced" MSU's ball screens and were pretty successful, so we might see that. If we do, hit the ice man right away, dribble hand-off to Winston, then ball-screen, was a successful concept.

5. Tillman vs. Zion / Henry vs. Barrett. Those would be my matchups from the MSU standpoint. Izzo may double-team less than any coach in America. I do think you will see increased gap-help onto Barrett and Zion when they put their head down to drive. KYP - Know Your Personnel - So important in this game. How far you can help off Jones/Bolden/O'Connell/etc is so important. Zion just puts his head down and lowers his shoulder. If you have the guts, you can take charges in bunches. But I think the strength/athleticism of Henry and Tillman gives you your best chance. The ultimat x-factor in a game like this are Barrett and Zion. Superstars can win games by themselves and as good as Winston is, those two are different talents.

6. Duke's perimeter shooting. I get that they are shooting much better than normal during the tournament. But last night was a major anomaly. Jones hasn't hit more than two 3's in a game this year...he went 5/7 last night. The rest of the team was 1/13. MUST talk Duke into taking 3's. When the option is Zion in the post or Zion/Barrett to the rim or them shooting 3's, just slightly contested, I'll take 3's. I trust izzo's ability to scheme that way.

7. The health of Cam Reddish. It's a BIG deal. Regardless of what you think about his offense, he guards much better than O'Connell. That matters. Also, for a team that is not very deep, everyone bumps up a notch in a game like this. That matters. You throw in foul trouble/injury, matters even more. Reddish's health is a major factor in this game, IMO.

8. MSU must run. Duke was a mediocre defensive team last year, not this year. They can really guard in the half-court. MSU is best playing fast. Duke doesn't have great depth. MSU must run, run, run. It allows you to run Duke's best players in transition and also to avoid having to score against a stingy half-court defense.

9. 2 important stats. MSU's turnovers and Duke's 3-point shooting percentage. I think those two tell the story of the game.

10. Unsung hero. Gabe Brown for MSU yesterday out of nowhere for 15 points. Duke loses the game yesterday if Trey Jones doesn't have a historic shooting performance. Who will it be for either team? O'Connell? Goins rediscovers the jumper? It will be someone.