Coaching Corner: MSU vs. Michigan Preview - 3 Ways Each Team Can Win the Game

As we look forward to the MSU vs. Michigan game on Saturday, it certainly looks different than it did a month ago. In the span of about three weeks, Michigan had lost to LSU, was blown out by UNC, and blew a lead at Ohio State. MSU was rolling along after the loss to Duke. Well, a lot has changed since then and both teams go into this rivalry game with a legitimate chance to win.

How Michigan Wins

1. UM half-court offensive system defeats MSU's half-court defensive system - The way that UM runs offense can expose some of the vulnerability in MSU's defensive system. This MSU team is 7th in the nation in adjusted defense, so exposing the few flaws they have will not be easy. A few ways UM might be able to do that:

* MSU switches most guard to guard screens on the perimeter. UM slips those screens as well as anyone in the country. That leaves MSU in situations where communication must be quick and clear. If not, there will be blown defensive assignments and layups.

* UM spaces the floor very well and MSU plays a gap-based defense. When UM dribble penetrates into a gap, MSU will butt-in to help. That leaves MSU vulnerable for drive and kick 3's. People wonder why MSU struggles to defend the "3" at times and that's the exact reason. The defensive philosophy they play is built to limit paint touches and show help from the nearest defender, which can give up more 3's.

* Finally, ball screens in space. UM is going to take whomever is MSU's slowest defender on the court and make him defend ball screens in space. You will see Simpson/Wagner ball screens where Ward has to help and Wagner pops for a 3. That will be a major challenge for Ward.

2. UM makes 3's - Early in the year, Michigan was hovering around 11th-12th in the B1G in 3-point percentage. Since then, they have risen to 7th at 37%. Against Purdue, they were 10/22 for 46%. In the 30 point beatdown UM gave MSU last February, they shot 48% from "3." Due to the system pieces discussed above, I think UM needs to shoot in the upper 40's to win on Saturday. They can beat an Indiana or Illinois not shooting it well from 3, but I don't think the upper-echelon B1G teams.

3. UM limits Nick Ward in the post and MSU's transition - Take a look at what Rutgers and Ohio State did to really limit the MSU offense. If you take Nick Ward away inside (OSU did it better and doubled) and MSU's transition game on makes and misses, you can make them a jump shooting team. Players like Bridges, McQuaid, and Langford can be inconsistent shooting the ball. Michigan needs to make MSU that jump shooting team. The #1 reason Michigan is better than they were a month ago is their improved half-court defense. They were in the 90's of Ken Pom's adjusted defense at one point this year. Now, they are into the top 30. Outside of Wanger and Robinson who are horrible defenders, Michigan can put plus defenders on the floor and have really improved. If you look at how MSU has struggled offensively the last two games and how UM is improving on defense, they have a shot to keep the game in the 60's, which is to their advantage.

How Michigan State Wins

1. Frontline dominates - Jackson vs. Robinson/Livers. Ward vs. Wagner. Bridges vs. Matthews. This is where MSU has an advantage in size and strength. MSU should have a double-digit advantage on the boards. They should post Jackson vs. Matthews or Robinson, whichever guards him. Ward should be able to get deep post touches, although I suspect Michigan will double him as Ohio State did. Teske is really a solid low-post defender, so they may double with Wagner and not with Teske. Guys like Bridges and Schilling should get to the offensive glass. MSU has the size and strength to dominate this game in the post and points in the paint. I would expect Izzo to start the game with a bevy of sets that are focused on post entries and not only to Ward, but to Jackson and Bridges as well. If MSU establishes a dominant low-post game early, Beilein will have to adjust and go to secondary plans which takes the Wolverines out of their good defensive rhythm.

2. Contains dribble penetration and cutting (defensive communication) - If MSU has great communication and doesn't allow straight line drives, they will overwhelm Michigan on the defensive end. In the 8 point win over UM last January, MSU held Michigan to 34% from the floor. Outside of Derrick Walton Jr, they had a hard time even getting shots. MSU has the athletes and the capability to hold UM to contested 3's and thus under 65 points.

3. Your best play like your best - Talent-wise, MSU will have the two best players on the floor with Jackson and Bridges. Winston, Ward, and Langford have all had break-out games already this year. MSU wins if their stars play like stars. If that happens, there is almost nothing that Michigan can do to win the game. That didn't happen against Ohio State or Rutgers. "Big time players make big time plays in big time games." We've heard it thousands of times. If Jackson and Bridges play like the best two players on the floor, MSU wins.